Filed under: Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Football, NFL, Sports | Tags: Football, Gambling, NFL, Predictions, Sports
I want to start this off as pronouncing that I am, in no means, a football or NFL expert. Nor am I well experienced or successful with gambling. But you know what? Every post-season I make picks based on the line and I kill it. And I mean kill it.
I partly think this can be attributed to me not making any picks until the post-season, thereby giving myself an entire season to judge all the teams. This argument had some merit, especially with me having the Sunday Ticket.
Well I am here to try to be successful the entire season with my picks. I will pick every game, every week and will monitor and report my continuing progress. Who knows? If I start doing pretty well, maybe a trip to Vegas will be in my plans. But lets not get too ahead of ourselves.
Week 1:
Giants (-4.5)
Bengals (-1.5)
Dolphins (+3)
Patriots (-9.5)
Texans (+6.5)
Jaguars (-1)
Lions (-3)
Seahawks (+1)
Saints (-3)
Rams (+7.5)
Cowboys (-5.5)
Chargers (-6)
Cardinals (-.5)
Bears (+9.5)
Vikings (+2.5)
Broncos (-3)
Notes:
Looks like I’m going with the favorites 10-6 this week. I was really surprised the Packers are favored over the Vikings by that much, even if they are at home. I was also surprised with the size of the spread for the Indy/Chicago and New England/KC games at 9.5 I took Pats and Bears as I think Chicago has a better chance to cover than KC. Two picks that scare me: Dolphins +3 and Lions -3.
I awoke on New Years Day as I imagine most people did-slowly. I resisted the urge to open my eyes for as long as a possibly could, before staggering out of my room and into the main area of the cabin we were renting. And that’s when I heard the news. I didn’t know Darrent Williams. I only knew of him, and to be quite frank, didn’t know much about him until the unfortunate events that took place right after the first of the year. I knew he was a great young cornerback on the Broncos that teamed up with Champ to make a dominating secondary. And now, after reading all the articles that have been written about him, I wish I had known about him as a person before his life was unexpectedley taken from him.
Darrent did everything you were supposed to do that night. He went out in a group instead of alone. He was driven around in a limo so he didn’t drink and drive. He left the nightclub at the first sign of trouble. These were all very smart actions on his part. I cannot imagine the confusion and terror that swept through that limo as Darrent took a bullet in the neck. Reportedly, star wide receiver Javon Walker was also in the limo and held Williams as he passed. Javon is going to need a lot of support in the up and coming weeks, months and years.
What possessed the people in the white Tahoe to open fire on Williams’ limo? We may never know. The police are still investigating motives and searching for the killers. When we finally catch those responsible, one of my co-workers had a great idea; stand the killers in the middle of Invesco Field at Mile High with a stadium full of Bronco maniacs. The terror might equal what these despicable men forced into that limo that night.
To me, I think the most awful part about this whole situation is that Williams was only 24 years old, same as me. In fact, I’m four months older. Darrent had his entire life and career in front of him, and it looked incredibly promising. And in only a few short moments, his life was over. It doesn’t take a master author to write down, “Life is short,” because it goes without saying. So I won’t say it. Better advice would be for everyone to take care of each other and stop this senseless violence, be it provoked or not. Nobody wins when an outstanding young man like Darrent dies.
Just a few hours earlier, the Broncos had lost a game and been eliminated from the playoffs. Who would’ve known that in less than a day, they’d lose so much more.
I’ve got to be honest. The injury to Tommie Harris scares the bejesus outta me. First, the Rams actually played us pretty good. If it weren’t for Devin Hester’s amazing heroics, it would’ve been a very, very tight game. A little too tight for comfort. And then to compound the fright, the following week it takes them deep into overtime to defeat lowly Tampa Bay. These are two mediocre to poor teams who came close to beating the mighty Chicago Bears. This cannot happen another week. But where does the adjustment need to be made?
Rex answered his critics with his performances the past two weeks and the running game has really kicked it into gear, so the offense is clearly not to blame anymore. Devin Hester has six special teams touchdowns this year, already and NFL record. Not only is special teams not the problem, but if you watch the Tampa Bay game, you could easily see how much Hester changed the special teams game-plan. The Achilles Heal of the Bears has suddenly become what used to make them terrifying.
Ever since Mike Brown went down for the season, I knew the defense would never recover. Not only is he one of the finest safeties in the NFL, but he’s the heart and leader of the Bears defense. As soon as Brown was out for the year, teams started to be able to run the ball against us. And now that Tommie Harris is out for the year and Tank is havings his brushes with the law, our run defense has evaporated. The Bears no longer has the intense, intimidating presence they had in the beginning of the year when they tore through the first quarter of the season. Injuries have taken their toll.
What reassures me about the Bears is that throughout the season, the three parts of the team have picked up the one part that wasn’t pulling it’s own weight. When the offense couldn’t muster anything against the Cardinals and Vikings, the defense and special teams pulled through. When the defense couldn’t stop the Buccaneers, Rex threw for his first career 300 yard game.
Although you never want to gamble in the playoffs and hope your entire team fires on all cylinders, having a backup could be the difference in the Super Bowl. And the Bears have those backups.
Onto the rest of the NFL. My MVP is still Drew Brees, even after his less than stellar performance last week. I know, I know, what about LT. I don’t want to take anything away from LT, he’s the best player in the game right now and is probably going to end up with 33 TDs. But the Chargers would at least be in playoff contention without LT because their team is that good. The Saints? I’m guessing they’d be around 4-10 or 5-9 right now without Brees. And can you imagine what the Dolphins would be like if they had signed Brees rather than trading for Culpepper?
I watched Thursday Night Football with a couple Bengals fans who were in complete disbelief of the events that unfolded in the second half. Even when they were down late in the fourth quarter, they kept trying to run the ball rather than throw it down the field. Another Bengals fan put it simply, “We got out-coached, out-planned and outplayed.” That’s pretty much what I saw.
Anyway, I think Denver is going to carry the momentum from Jay Cutler’s first win last week and beat the Bengals here at home, all but assuring them of a playoff spot. The almostphere is always healthy in Denver when the Bronocos are in the playoffs.
Anyway, I’d figure I’d start something this week and see how well I do. So for the first time this year, here are my NFL picks.
Packers -3
Chiefs -6.5
Titans +4.5
Saints +3
Redskins +2
Colts -9.5
Ravens +3.5
Buccaneers +3
Bears -5
Jaguars -3
Cardinals +4
Falcons -6
Broncos -3
Chargers +4.5
Eagles +7
Jets +2
Go Bears.
With Thanksgiving just around the corner, I thought we’d look at what NFL teams are thankful for this year (other than the billions of dollars the NFL will collectively earn this year). The Colts have a lot to be thankful for, while the Raiders have, well, next year. Along those lines, we’ll start off with the AFC.
Bills-They don’t have to worry about losing in the Super Bowl this year. And the A-Train already has double the rushing TDs as McGahee in half the carries.
Dolphins-The fact that victory is technically possible even after rushing for negative yardage. And Jason Taylor.
Patriots-Tom Brady.
Jets-Chad Pennington’s arm hasn’t fallen off yet. Those two offensive line picks in the draft didn’t hurt either.
Ravens-Steve McNair’s been healthy and Cincy and Pittsburgh keep tripping on their own two feet.
Bengals-The offense has awoken from it’s coma. Probably had something to do with Chad’s mohawk.
Browns-They can’t move the team away again. Can they? At least the Buckeyes are good.
Steelers-Last year.
Texans-Besides surpassing last year’s win total, the emergence of David Carr and Andre Johnson has been uplifting.
Colts-Peyton Manning.
Jaguars-Maurice Jones-Drew looks like a fine replacement for old man Taylor whenever he hangs them up. Also, Garrard has looked impressive filling in for Leftwich.
Titans-Despite completing less than 50% of his passes, Vince Young has still scored a total of 9 TDs.
Broncos-Champ Bailey and a solid D carrying an unimpressive offense. And that the Jake Plummer era may be approaching it’s end.
Chiefs-Larry Johnson. And Damon Huard for keeping the ship upright. But mostly Larry Johnson.
Raiders-They won two more games than anybody thought they’d win.
Chargers-The NFL Draft:1. LaDainian slipped to the 5th pick in 2001 NFL Draft 2. The Giants traded Phillip Rivers, Shawne Merriman and Nate Kaeding for Eli Manning. But mostly for L.T.
Four different games went to their first commercial at roughly the same time, and the first commercial was the new Budweiser Select commercial with Jay-Z. On four different channels, at the same time. I couldn’t escape the Jman; he truly does rule the world.
I think the Bengals would look cooler with Black Jerseys with orange stripes instead of the other way around. I’ve never seen a real tiger look like that though, so that’s probably why they don’t have those jerseys.
Since the Bears were on bye week, I decided my main game of interest in the morning would be Bengals/Panthers in the hopes of seeing a dance off between Chad and Steve. I’ll chronicle it periodically until I lose interest.
5:21 1Q: looks like Steve might strike first, Panthers almost in the Red Zone. What would be funny would be to see Steve do something Chad would do, like the Riverdance, in the Jungle. Funny thought, you know how T.O. used to flap his wings after a TD in Philly? I think if Chad or Steve ever acted like a big cat afterwards it would be slightly disturbing.
2:20 1Q: Wow Delhome just hit Keyshawn in the chest almost at the goal line and it bounced off. Get me the damn ball? Get some damn hands!
2:09 1Q: Mangum just lunged across and reached for the TD, and the red flag is on the field. Change the channel time. I thought he was down before he reached, but it holds up, TD Carolina. Chad’s on the clock.
C’mon Yahoo Sports, it’s already the 2nd Quarter in the Jets/Lions game and it still hasn’t told me whether Laverneous Coles is starting or not. The Jets have 112 receiving yards and none to Coles at this point. Might be screwed in two leagues. Great.
12:01 pm Damn, Larry Johnson just ran in an impressive score, and that can only mean one thing, somewhere Skip is smiling and giggling like a little girl. Oh man, Tynes just missed the extra point. Now that’s funny!
7:45 2Q: Bengals just got their first first down. ‘Bout time.
5:34 2Q: I just saw a Bengals fan with an orange headband with a tiger tail on the back. Insert your own comment here. But I am now starting to see why my cousin prefers Rudi now over Dillon in his prime.
3:16 2Q: TD Bengals! But it’s Reggie Kelley! No dance. Steve’s on the clock.
Only against Green Bay can you hear “Joey Harrington to Marty Booker for the big play!”
0:47 2Q: TD Panthers! Nick Goings! 1st TD since 2004. At halftime, no TDs for Steve or Chad, and Steve leads with 38 yards to 10.
Late in the 2nd quarter, Rivers looked really shook up and rattled. Then he completes a 14 yard pass to LT. Skip is pleased, but wants San Diego to stop kicking field goals.
10:37 3Q: Bengals will have good field position after the punt. C’mon Chad, make me regret benching you in a league. I’m sure you’re furious.
Roy Williams looks like he’s trying to bring the Ray Lewis at “the U” look back.
9:45 3Q: Nice, Rudi just busted a 21 yarder, and is looking like he might get the TD. Fantasy implications: Great. Dance-off implications: Bad.
7:08 3Q: Field goal for Shayne Graham. And he doesn’t dance.
Wow, they were just talking about Ronde Barber and he picks it off for a TD. Tampa is destroying Philly 17-0 halfway in the 3rd.
2:01 3Q: Great, just found out Chad hasn’t scored in the 3rd quarter in 52 consecutive games or something, and
Carolina hasn’t scored a TD in the 3rd all season. Wish I would’ve known that at the beginning of the quarter, and I probably would’ve caught more of the Steelers/Falcons game.
Speaking of the Steeler/Falcon game, I switch to it to find Vick hitting Crumpler for a big first down making it 1st and goal. Think I’ll stay here for awhile…
Cincy last week and Philly this week (up 17-7 at this point), are the Bucs for real, was Simms just the weak link, is Gradkowski next Tom Brady? Probably jumping the gun a bit.
Damn it, at the end of the 3rd, LJ has 28 points. LT has less than 7. Frankly, I’ll take it. I’m lucky the duo goes for under 50.
10:18 4Q: Carson goes deep for Chad…and…too deep. Guess I’ll have to wait a little longer.
9:05 4Q: Wow, on 4th and 1, Carson fakes the handoff and passes deep to Chad…setting up first and goal.
I flip back to the Steeler/Falcon game and shit! Hines Ward is fucking crazy! I flip back to the Steeler/Falcon game and shit! I tune in just in time to see Hines hit in stride, lose his shoe and run in the rest for the TD.
8:11 4Q: I flip back to the Battle of the Cats in time to see Carson throw a TD…to TJ. He does a little bow, and that’s it. When are you going to learn? Start being more creative or we’ll continue at calling you T.J. Housyourmama instead of bothering to figure out the correct pronunciation.
0:25 4Q: Looks like the Bengals are gonna pull it out, but I don’t get any type of dance-off. Great game, but hard to live up to my lofty expectations.
San Diego completely snuck up on me. It’s tied?? Really? But then Tynes, the guy who missed the extra-point, hits a 53 yard field goal to win it. KC wins!
Westbrook had himself a game. I need it, now that the LJ/LT combo Skip’s got has it up to 53. Turns out, Rudi/Westbrook just about equaled LT/LJ. Too bad the rest of Skip’s team kicked ass.
Joey Harrington threw for 414 yards and the Dolphins lost. Despite the loss, that type of production is gonna keep Dante’s ass planted on the bench for awhile.
Took a long break, needed to get a house in the mountains for new years, rake the lawn and take a shower. I come back and find none of the games are interesting, the best being Broncos 17 Browns 7. Oakland is beating the Cardinals? The same Cardinals who almost whooped the Bears? Well this should make the league where I have Edge and Boldin pretty interesting.
The NFC has turned into a madhouse. The defending Super Bowl representatives have dismantled without Alexander. Arizona gets beat by Oakland. Philly drops to 4-3 with a loss to Tampa. Carolina loses one to the Bengals. Unless the Bears play like they did against Arizona, who’s going to beat them?
Broncos win! It’s a good feeling when both the Bears and Broncos are in first place.
Matt Leinart is now 0-3. Quick story: Let me tell what might’ve been the worst part of the Bears game last week. When Leinart’s lighting up the Bears’ secondary, they show a picture of him with his stats. My wife, in the seat next to me at the bar, goes “Oooh, he’s pretty cute.” Ugh.
It’s 5:30, all the games are over, got the World Series tonight, go Tigers.
