Filed under: Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Football, NFL, Sports | Tags: Football, Gambling, NFL, Predictions, Sports
I want to start this off as pronouncing that I am, in no means, a football or NFL expert. Nor am I well experienced or successful with gambling. But you know what? Every post-season I make picks based on the line and I kill it. And I mean kill it.
I partly think this can be attributed to me not making any picks until the post-season, thereby giving myself an entire season to judge all the teams. This argument had some merit, especially with me having the Sunday Ticket.
Well I am here to try to be successful the entire season with my picks. I will pick every game, every week and will monitor and report my continuing progress. Who knows? If I start doing pretty well, maybe a trip to Vegas will be in my plans. But lets not get too ahead of ourselves.
Week 1:
Giants (-4.5)
Bengals (-1.5)
Dolphins (+3)
Patriots (-9.5)
Texans (+6.5)
Jaguars (-1)
Lions (-3)
Seahawks (+1)
Saints (-3)
Rams (+7.5)
Cowboys (-5.5)
Chargers (-6)
Cardinals (-.5)
Bears (+9.5)
Vikings (+2.5)
Broncos (-3)
Notes:
Looks like I’m going with the favorites 10-6 this week. I was really surprised the Packers are favored over the Vikings by that much, even if they are at home. I was also surprised with the size of the spread for the Indy/Chicago and New England/KC games at 9.5 I took Pats and Bears as I think Chicago has a better chance to cover than KC. Two picks that scare me: Dolphins +3 and Lions -3.
Yeah, I know it took me a few weeks to write this. What did you expect me to do? Hop online as soon as the game was over? I had to wait until I was prepared to write this. I didn’t want this post to be hallow. So here are my thoughts:
Rex didn’t lose the game for us. At the time of the INT for TD, we were running the ball effectivley. There was no reason to start passing. I blame the coaching on this one.
The Bears D did not blitz Peyton Manning nearly enough. Just like Cincinnati did, they dropped back and let Manning pick them apart. I blame the coaching.
Devon Hester is amazing.
As talented as Cedric Benson is, I’m going to miss Thomas Jones next year, if, as expected, the Bears trade him.
The Bears better franchise Lance Briggs.
In the playoffs, I went 5-2 with my picks and 4-3 against the spread. It may not be spectacular, but it’s a winning record.
Peyton Manning, you’re a great QB, congrats, you earned it, yada yada yada. I dare you to make it to the Super Bowl again next year so we can beat you down.
That’s it. I don’t want to spend any more time dwelling in the past. We had a terrific year. Thirty teams don’t make it to the Super Bowl. We did, and came up a little short.
My attention will now shift back to baseball, where the Cubs are undefeated. Cubs in ‘07!
I can’t believe the day is almost here. For 21 long years, the city of Chicago has waited for another team to call it’s own, another team that could capture it’s imagination, another team that could win it all. In 1985, a rag tag group of individuals came together to form (in my opinion) the greatest team of all time. If it weren’t for their lone blemish against Dan Marino and the Dolphins, no one would ever debate that fact. We had the funky QB we called McMahon, Sweetness, Refrigerator, Singletary, Dent, Wilson, Hampton, Gault…..the list goes on and on. They were good and they knew it. They even made the infamous rap video during the regular season titled “Super Bowl Shuffle.” That’s right. They didn’t even wait to make the Super Bowl, let alone the playoffs, before they were pronouncing their superiority. And after the dust settled on the annihilation that was the Bears 46-10 victory over the Patriots in Super Bowl XX, we knew we had just witnessed something special.
Twenty-one years later, we have a funky QB named Rex, a split backfield, an injured Tommie Harris, Urlacher, Alex and Wally, Briggs, Tank and Berrian. Now, these names aren’t going to strike the fear of God into the opponent’s hearts like the Bears of the mid-80’s. But they do have what it takes to bring down the “mighty” Indianapolis Colts. I’m not even going to mention what all these so called “experts” are predicting because they are all biased towards the better story: Peyton winning it all. How quickly everyone forgets that the Colts had to squeak by New England (who was not that great of a team this year), while the Bears brought the fury down on everyone’s darling and trendy Super Bowl pick, the Saints.
Just like against the Saints when I said the Bears running game would dictate the final score (which I was right about), the same will be true in Miami on Sunday night. I am a big Rex supporter, have been all season, have been since they drafted him. However, I do not want Rex to try to outsling Peyton Manning. As highly as I think of Rex, he is not yet at the same caliber as Manning. This is not to say Rex won’t have a great game. Quite the opposite I say. In fact, Rex might have better numbers than Peyton at the end of the game. For this to be done, the Bears need to control the clock and take as much time away from the Colts as physically possible. With their two headed monster of Jones and Benson, the Bears need to wear the Colts down early. Even if it’s not putting points on the board right away, they need to grind down the Colts defenders to open up the passing game. Yes, the Colts D has significantly improved since the return of Bob Sanders, but they are still a pale comparison to the Bears’ magnificent defense. True, we are missing Tommie Harris and Mike Brown. We lost Brown for the last 2/3 of the season and Harris for the last 1/3, and we still led the league in takeaways. The Colts were positively awful on the defensive side during the season. After three straight solid performances, they are due to revert back to form. Once the big play is opened up by the running game, I see Rex the sharpshooter hitting his targets all over the field. That’s what I see coming on Sunday.
Peyton is going to do his best to win the game for the Colts, but in the end, it’s not going to be good enough. Be it interceptions or fumbles, I see the Bears defense coming up huge. Urlacher is going to have a great game, but mostly by covering Peyton’s backup plan (Dallas Clark), and by initiating almost every tackle on the field. I think Brian is going to leave the big, game-changing plays for Alex Brown, Daniel Manning and Lance Briggs. And while Peyton is busy putting on the Manning face on the sidelines, his defense will be getting run over by T.J. and Ced. Then, when the timing is just right and we have the Indy safeties biting on the run, Rex is going to run a play-action bomb to Bernard Berrian for an easy six.
I do believe this is going to be a highly enjoyable, close Super Bowl. Peyton Manning is going to go down as the best statistical QB to ever play the game and will probably win two Super Bowls. This isn’t going to be one of them. For 21 years we’ve waited for another team to embody the spirit of Chicago like our heroes of ‘85. These Bears may not be as brash, cocky, and dominant as their predecessors, but they do embody the city. They win with a stingy defense, relentless running game, strong special teams, and make the most of opportunities. That’s Bears football. And while the names aren’t yet as famous as those who rapped and shuffled, history will fondly remember Rex, Urlacher and the rest of these ’06 Bears. It’s the Bears’ time, and we’re gonna shuffle onto victory.
After not getting my first round picks online in time, I’ve gone 5-1 in the playoffs, 4-2 against the spread. On top of that, no domed team has ever won an outdoor Super Bowl. I like those odds. Score: Bears 27 Colts 24 MVP:Thomas Jones (128 yards, 2 TD)
Plenty of storylines in tomorrow’s Championship games. In the AFC, we have the best current QB rivalry with Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. We also have a rematch of several previous playoff matchups between the Colts and Patriots. In the NFC, we have the cinderella Saints, America’s Team, marching in with an improbable one season turnaround from the chaos of Hurricane Katrina and a 3-13 season. We also have my beloved Chicago Bears making their first appearance in the NFC Championship in 19 years. In fact, this is the first time I can remember the Bears being in this round. Before I become fully entrenched on my couch tomorrow, lets get some predictions out of the way.
Patriots/Colts: This game is a struggle between history and current perceptions. History has taught us that Peyton can’t play in the playoffs, and Tom Brady can’t make a mistake. So far, Peyton has not had a great set of playoff games, but then again, neither has Tom Brady. History tells us that the Patriots dominate the Colts, but the Horseshoes have won two straight regular season games over the Pats. History tells us the Colts D is weak, but they have had a strong playoffs performances. History probably would say the Pats will win this game, but if you’ve been paying attention, you’d see that the Colts are the better team right now. The dominating Colts safeties are going to confuse and annoy Tom Brady all day. Peyton will get his stroke back once back in the RCA Dome and get Marvin and Reggie involved early and often. I’m predicting 312 yards and 3 TD and no INT from Peyton on Sunday, and he finally gets his monkey off his back. At the end of the game they’ll be an awkward hug at midfield between Manning and Brady, except this time, Peyton’s going to have on this huge grin while Bill Bilichick spontaneously combusts in his raggedy grey sweatshirt. Colts -3 over Pats. Score: Colts 31 Patriots 17
Saints/Bears:The anticipation for this game is a lot different than when the Cubs reached the NLCS in 2003. In 2003, the Cubs were favored by a wide margin to defeat the Florida Marlins. We had everything going for us. We had two of the hottest pitchers in the game, Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, set to pitch games 6 & 7 while the Cubs held a 3-2 lead in the series. There was no way we could lose. Even if they got by Prior, they won’t fool Woody. Well, we all remember what happened so I won’t even get into it. For tomorrow’s game, yeah, sure, we’re favored by 2.5 points in Vegas, but it’s no giddy anticipation I’m feeling. It’s anxiety and nervousness. While most people will point to Rex as the sole source of my nervousness, they’d also be forgetting about the losses suffered on the defensive side of the ball that have left the Bears far from their midseason, impenetrable selves. And now we have to host America’s sweetheart, the Saints. What a wonderful story the Saints are. It really is too bad that we’ll be the team vilified for putting an end to their magical season. Drew Brees, in my opinion, should’ve gotten more consideration for MVP, but I don’t see the Saints beating the Bears in Soldier Field in January in the cold and snow. Brees isn’t built for it, Bush isn’t built for it, the Saints aren’t built for it. But the Bears are. As long as the Bears D can contain Deuce and Reggie on the ground and T.J. and Benson can make good gains, the Bears will win. There it is, the key to the game, the running attack. I can feel a great game coming from Urlacher and he will carry the D on his back (like in the Arizona game) if he has to. We’re sorry to break your hearts Saints, we truly are, but at least we won’t beat you at home. Bears -2.5 over Saints. Score: Bears 24 Saints 16
Last weeks playoff action provided plenty of action and plenty of surprises. We’ll start at the top.
The Colts/Ravensgame, which I predicted would be the best game of the weekend, fizzled with a combined seven field goals and no touchdowns. I could’ve foreseen the Ravens not scoring a single touchdown, but even against the mighty Ravens defense, I thought Peyton would throw at least one TD. Unfortunately, that moment never came and the game became the worst of the weekend. The Colts got some unexpected good news, however, when they found out Peyton can struggle in the playoffs and still emerge victorious. The Colts much discussed defense again turned in a solid performance, and of course Adam Vinatieri was worth his weight in gold. One disappointing aspect of the game was the reported fan behavior towards anything Colts in the stadium. Look, the Indy fans didn’t steal your team and players on the field weren’t even in the league when the team moved. You got a new team and they’ve won a Super Bowl more recently than Indy. Get over it. Anyway, I didn’t pick the score, but I picked the Colts. Dave 1-0. Colts MVP: Adam Vinatieri Ravens MVP: Ed Reed
The Eagles/Saintsgame was a more competitive game because of Brian Westbrook, the guy I identified as being essential in the Eagles pulling off the upset. Deuce was a monster all day, and Reggie really looks like he’s turned the corner in his career and is going to be a more consistently great player. Garcia & Co. did their best and really put forth a valiant effort, but the Saints and the home crowd was really too much. It was a closer game than I anticipated, but I still took the Saints to win. Dave 2-0. Eagles MVP: Brian Westbrook Saints MVP: Deuce McAllister
In of course the most anticipated game of the weekend for me, the Bears pulled out a victory to reach the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 1988. This was an especially exciting event because I was only six years old when that happened. Now that I am old enough to remember, the game was extremely important to me, especially after the heartbreak the Panthers caused me last year. I could’ve done without the overtime, as my heart was pounding, but I’ll take a victory any way I can. Anyway, except for that one fumble (which Rex should’ve known better and just gotten rid of the ball, but that’s besides the point), Rex played a very solid game. In fact, Rex threw for more yards than any of the other seven quarterbacks playing last week. The Bears D continued their streak of disappointing appearances, proving how much they miss Tommie Harris and Mike Brown. Bernard Berrian played a tremendous game, including that beautiful pass from Rex for a TD. T.J. backed us up with two scores, but in my mind, the true star of the game was Rasheed Davis. He didn’t score, but came up with a huge catch from in the first quarter when Rex didn’t exactly put it in a spot where only Rasheed could catch it. On top of that, he also had a huge catch in overtime to get Gould in position. The Bears are still my Super Bowl team. Of course I picked them to win, so that brings me to 3-0. Seahwaks MVP: Shaun Alexander Bears MVP: Rasheed Davis
Finally, the Patriots/Chargers game provided not only excitement, but a little bit of contraversy. To weigh in on the whole L.T./Pats spat, I’m kind of on the fence on this one. For one, L.T. is right. Dancing and stomping on a team’s logo after beating a team on their own home field is disrespectful, as was them imitating Shawne Merriman’s sack dance. As classy as the Patriots portray themselves to be, in truth it appears they think they’re better than everyone else and surely showed poor judgement. On the other hand, the cheating, steroid injecting, disgrace of a Pro-Bowler Merriman told a pep rally in San Diego he was going to “hit Tom Brady in the mouth.” If you’re stupid enough to take steroids in today’s NFL and think you won’t get caught, you’re going to put a pretty big spotlight on yourself. As does doing a roid-rage induced dance after every sack. And then to call out the NFL’s so called “golden boy”, man, you’re just asking for it at this point. What I don’t understand is why the normally classy Tomlinson is taking such a strong stand behind such an embarrassment. I understand you stick up for your teammates and you have to “defend the house”, but this whole thing has really grown out of control, and it’s probably the media’s fault (like always). In short, yes, the Patriots were jerks, but blown out of proportion. Although I did love that jab at the Pats, “…and maybe it comes from their head coach.” Anyway, there was a game played, right? Three things killed the Chargers, in my mind. First, going for it on fourth and eleven in the first instead of kicking a field goal. Second, the fumble after the interception. Lastly, the challenge of the fumble after the interception. Two out three were Marty’s fault. Gee, I wonder why this guy has a losing playoff record. Patriots pull off the big upset, and Dave drops to 3-1 for the weekend. Patriots MVP: Marty Schottenheimer Chargers MVP: LaDanian Tomlinson
It’s really hard to be scared of the Seattle Seahawks when their quarterbacks willingly pose for a picture like this: http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/dayart/20040908/226hawksportraits07_qbacks.jpg
I feel embarrassed for them.
Compare that wimpy image with this classic shot of Urlacher after taking down the evil Brett Favre: http://hamnd.50megs.com/images/urlacher.jpg
I don’t think Brian’s afraid. And in Urlacher we trust.
“The Bears are who we THOUGHT THEY WERE!” In honor of the Bears playoff game and impending victory this weekend, I wanted to dust off a recent instant classic: Dennis Green’s postgame meltdown after the Bears improbable victory on Monday night this season. Here’s the link on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2UtBdFQh4k
Of course, no coach meltdown post would be complete without Jim Mora’s “Playoffs?!?!?” rant: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qwq7BYOnDrM
And to complete it, here’s a coach meltdown medley: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyzTzwTFgcs&mode=related&search=
I missed getting my picks up last week, so I wanted to make sure I got the second round up nice and early. I think every game this weekend will be a good one, so it’s going to be a shame I’m going to have to miss at least some of them so I can go riding. But hey, that’s what TiVo’s for. Home teams are 4-0 so far these playoffs, but I’m picking at least one upset this round. Here are my thoughts on the four games this weekend:
Colts/Ravens-Old Baltimore vs. New Baltimore. Offense vs. Defense. Peyton vs. Ray. This game could be billed so many different ways and I think it may be the best game of the weekend. Too bad I’m going to miss at least the first half while I’m driving back from Beaver Creek. Like I said before, TiVo. First of all, if Larry Johnson couldn’t run against the Colts D, Jamal Lewis won’t. On the other hand, if Kansas City’s defense could throw Peyton into fits in Indy, imagine what the Ravens will do to him in Baltimore. I think this game is going to be incredibly close and could come down to the final play of the game, but I’m going with the upset on this one. Colts 24 Ravens 21
Eagles/Saints-Remember New Orleans’ first home game this season against the Falcons? It didn’t matter if the Saints played the AFC Pro Bowl team, they were not going to be denied that night. Same thing is going to happen on Saturday night as the NFC’s two Cinderella teams clash for the right to move on. Jeff Garcia has done a marvelous job leading the McNabbless Eagles, but time’s up. With or without Sheppard, Drew Brees is going to pick Philly apart. The Saints simply have too many options. The only way I see the Eagles moving on is with a humongous game from Brian Westbrook. Saints 31 Eagles 20.
Seahawks/Bears-Gee, I wonder who I’m going to pick for this game??? Seriously though, I think Chicago’s sportswriters and talk show hosts are freaking out over nothing. You have to look at precedent for Rex. The last time Rex had a horrible game followed by a bye week, he had a great game with 2 TD’s against the 49ers. This is from Lovie and the rest of the staff having two solid weeks to review film, work on mechanics and practice checking down his receivers. Yes, the Bears defense is hurting without Harris and Brown, but the Seahawks secondary is hurting as well. It’s not going to be a complete blowout like earlier in the season, but Bears win. Bears 30 Seahawks 20
Patriots/Chargers-I’m not buying into the whole Brady thing this year. Not with the team he’s leading right now. It’s a big difference to stop Chad Pennington, Leon Washington and the rest of the New York Jets, as opposed to Phillip Rivers, LT, Antonio Gates and the Chargers. And I haven’t even talked about the Chargers defense yet. Brady’s not going to have the time to make his smart throws when Shawne Merriman comes roiding down on him. Yes, I know the Patriots playoff record with Brady under center. But I’ve also watched LT play, and I don’t think New England has an answer. The Chargers are the most complete team in the playoffs, and the only one without a glaring weakness. It’ll be close, but no cigar for the Pats. Chargers 35 Patriots 31
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know it’s been a few weeks since Week 16. I meant to write this post awhile ago, then I forgot, then I meant to make my Week 17 picks, and forgot to do that too. Then I meant to write a playoff preview, and forgot to do that as well. So, all I can do at this point is to summarize Week 16.
For my first edition of my NFL picks, I did pretty well. I ended up going 9-6-1, with the push coming in the Bears/Lions game. Not too shabby for the first time picking against the spread this year. If only I could’ve actually won something.